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The Alternative Vote Explained

This video is a part of the 'Politics in the Animal Kingdom' series.

For the purposes of making the video simpler, I pretended that everyone who voted for Owl, Turtle, etc had the same first, second and third choices for their candidates. In a real election it is unlikely, though not impossible, that the votes would be cast this perfectly.

Under the Alternative Vote in the first round when Turtle is illuminated, if half Turtle's voters like Owl and half like Gorilla then Owl would get half the votes and Gorilla would get half.

Full script:

Queen Lion of the Animal Kingdom is displeased. She recently introduced elections for the office of king using the first post the post voting system.

While her Realm started out as a healthy democracy with many parties running candidates for king, it quickly devolved into two party rule, with the citizens not liking either one but trapped within the system because of a problem called the spoiler effect.

However, one of Queen Lion's subjects from a distant land, Wallaby, has a solution: The Alternative Vote.

What's the difference?

To find out, lets follow one voter on election day, Red Squirrel, under both systems.

There are five candidates running for king, two members of the big parties Gorilla and Leopard and three other candidates, Turtle, Owl and Tiger.

Under first-past-the-post Red Squirrel gets a ballot where he picks just one candidate.

Red Squirrel Really likes Turtle and even campaigned for him. However he knows that his new neighbor, Grey Squirrel, is voting Gorilla.

And what, starts to wonder Red Squirrel, about all the other animals? Who are they going to vote for?

The debates on Animal News Network only had the big parties, so Red Squirrel thinks it's going to be a close race between Gorilla and Leopard.

While he's indifferent toward Gorilla he is deathly afraid of Leopard.

Because he can only pick a single candidate, he gives his one vote to Gorilla in hopes of preventing Leopard from becoming king.

This is strategic voting, and it's a necessity under First Past the Post.

But now it's time to look at the Alternative Vote, which wallaby explains to Red Squirrel.

Instead of picking one and only one candidate, he can rank them in order of his most favorite to his least.

He goes into the voting both and gets the same ballot as before, but now puts Turtle as his first choice, Owl as his second and Gorilla, third.

He dislikes Leopard and Tiger equally so he stops filling in his ballot and drops it in the box.

At this point, Red Squirrel doesn't care exactly what happens, he has other things on his mind and heads off. But you, dear citizen, want to know how the votes are counted so here goes:

Turtle, beloved though he is with some of the citizenry, comes in last place with only 5% and he is eliminated from the race.

Because the voters ranked their candidates in order, we can know what would have happened if Turtle didn't run.

Without Turtle, voters like Red Squirrel, would have picked Owl instead, so their votes are transferred to her as though Turtle was never in the race at all.

This is why Alternative Vote is sometimes called Instant Runoff Voting. It's able to simulate a bunch of elections where the least popular candidate is eliminated after each round without all the time and expense it would take to run a bunch of campaigns, one after another.

The Alternative Vote method keeps eliminated the least popular candidate until someone either wins a majority or is the only one left.

As no one has a majority yet, the next lowest candidate, Tiger, is eliminated. Tiger voters listed leopard as their second choice, so she gets Tiger's votes.

In the last round, Gorilla is eliminated. Gorilla voters listed Owl as their second choice, so Owl gets those votes, wins a majority, so is crowed king.

The alternative vote is a better system because it produces winners that a larger number of voters agree on.

While the Alternative Vote does have flaws it's important to note that any problem AV has, first past the post shares.

They're both susceptible to gerrymandering, they aren't proportional systems, they can't guarantee a Condorcet winner (which math geeks hate but there isn't time to explain here), and over time they both trend toward two main parties.

That being said, Alternative Vote has a huge advantage that first past the post lacks and makes it a mathematically superior method: no spoiler effect!

Imagine this election: the two big candidates are running, Gorilla and Leopard, and Leopard looks set to win 55% to 45%. But then a third party candidate, Tiger, enters.

Tiger manages to convince 15% of the Leopard voters to back him. Now the results are:

Under first past the post, gorilla now wins even though a majority of the voters didn't want him.

Under the Alternative Vote, because all Tiger voters put Leopard as second choice, Leopard still wins because a majority of the citizens of the animal kingdom would rather have her in charge than gorilla.

With AV citizens can help support and grow smaller parties that they agree without worrying they'll put someone they don't like into office.

After examining the differences, Queen Lion decrees that the Alternative Vote is to be the rule of the land for electing the king and everyone is happier. …well almost everyone. The two big parties can't be complacent and need to campaign harder for their votes.

This has been The Alternative Vote Explained by me C. G. P. Grey.

Thank you very much for watching.

Images by: David C Walker 1967, Billy Lindblom, xlibber, Todd Ryburn, shirobane, Dawn Huczek, TheBusyBrain, Stig Nygaard, Michael Baird, Ana_Cotta, digitalART2, be_khe, Hamed Saber, Conor Lawless, travellingtamas, Pixel Addict, Shawn Allen & audreyjm529

Music: "Artifact" by Kevin MacLeod

Spanish captions by Alberto van Oldenbareneveld.

As always, special thanks to Wikipedia.

United States Median Household Income by State

A number of people suggested that my United States passport ownership map wasn't measuring passport ownership as I thought, but income.

With a little data analysis, it turns out they are right. Below is the scatter graph of median income vs percent passport ownership:

(By the way, does anyone know how to label the points in a scatter plot on Google Spreadsheets?)

The correlation analysis gives 0.86 – just about as correlated as you ever see real-world results.

The full data as follows:

State

Median Income

Rank

MARYLAND

$69,272

1

NEW JERSEY

$68,342

2

CONNECTICUT

$67,034

3

ALASKA

$66,953

4

HAWAII

$64,098

5

MASSACHUSETTS

$64,081

6

NEW HAMPSHIRE

$60,567

7

VIRGINIA

$59,330

8

DELAWARE

$59,290

9

CALIFORNIA

$58,931

10

WASHINGTON

$56,548

11

MINNESOTA

$55,616

12

COLORADO

$55,430

13

UTAH

$55,117

14

NEW YORK

$54,659

15

RHODE ISLAND

$54,119

16

ILLINOIS

$53,966

17

NEVADA

$53,341

18

WYOMING

$52,664

19

VERMONT

$51,618

20

WISCONSIN

$49,993

21

PENNSYLVANIA

$49,520

22

ARIZONA

$48,745

23

OREGON

$48,457

24

TEXAS

$48,259

25

IOWA

$48,044

26

NORTH DAKOTA

$47,827

27

KANSAS

$47,817

28

GEORGIA

$47,590

29

NEBRASKA

$47,357

30

MAINE

$45,734

31

INDIANA

$45,424

32

OHIO

$45,395

33

MICHIGAN

$45,255

34

MISSOURI

$45,229

35

SOUTH DAKOTA

$45,043

36

IDAHO

$44,926

37

FLORIDA

$44,736

38

NORTH CAROLINA

$43,674

39

NEW MEXICO

$43,028

40

LOUISIANA

$42,492

41

SOUTH CAROLINA

$42,442

42

MONTANA

$42,322

43

TENNESSEE

$41,725

44

OKLAHOMA

$41,664

45

ALABAMA

$40,489

46

KENTUCKY

$40,072

47

ARKANSAS

$37,823

48

WEST VIRGINIA

$37,435

49

MISSISSIPPI

$36,646

50

Data from the United States Census Bureau.

The Problems With First Past the Post Voting Explained

(This video is a part of the 'Politics in the Animal Kingdom' series)

Here is my first attempt at a video where I'm directly trying to be understood, rather than give an overview of all the complexity I don't expect anyone to remember. Feedback would be much welcome, as I'm afraid this one might be a bit… dull.

However, if it goes well I'd like to expand politics in the Animal Kingdom to include some other topics, such as the two mentioned in the video and things like federalism. Suggestions welcome.

Unrelated to anything, I really wanted Elephant to be my centrist candidate, but I'm going to keep it intensionally unrelated to real politics. Zebra was my second choice but, after growing up in the United States and living in London for the better part of a decade now I have rather schizophrenic problems with the pronunciations of some words. Also, for future editions, I'm looking for a good, public domain or creative commons attribution photo of a narwhal. Anyone have one? Flickr came up dry.

In case it's not obvious enough from the video, I'm a big supporter of the Alternative Vote Referendum and the Yes in May Campaign.

Credits

Images by: Billy Lindblom, digitalART2, Brian Snelson, Hamed Saber, audreyjm529, Shawn Allen, xlibber, Andrea Allen & Marie-Lan Nguyen.

Music by: Kevin MacLeod.